The recent coronavirus outbreak in Rakhine State has pushed Myanmar’s total confirmed cases to more than 900 (at the time of writing), a more than two fold increase in just over two weeks. On August 31, the Ministry of Health and Sports reported 95 new cases, the highest ever increase for a single report. For now, the vast majority of newly reported cases have been limited to Rakhine State, with nearly 200 reported from the city of Sittwe. A startling 15 local transmissions were reported in Yangon, prompting officials to issue stay-at-home orders for seven townships in the city. Worse still, the Irrawaddy reported that a Rohingya detainee tested positive for the disease, an indication that the coronavirus may be active in that vulnerable (and often highly mobile) population.

The new outbreak — which seems to have started from a bank worker in Sittwe — may undo hopes that Myanmar had successfully thwarted an outbreak as severe as those seen in neighboring countries. Until a few weeks ago, Myanmar had managed to keep its case count (at least officially) at under 400, whereas Thailand exceeded 3000 cases. Bangladesh, which borders Rakhine State, has reported more than 300,000 confirmed cases.

The new surge of cases and a potential second wave could set back Myanmar’s economic recovery effort, especially for its tourism sector. International tourism has ground to a halt in the past six months, and the government has attempted to boost domestic tourism to triage the industry. Yet this local outbreak may once again freeze domestic travel and further postpone re-opening of international tourism.