In a newly released publication titled “The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Developing Asia”, the Asian Development Bank tries to assess the impact on Asia’s economies by the new global pandemic. “The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak (see related articles) affects the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other developing Asian economies through numerous channels, including sharp declines in domestic demand, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health effects”.

The report continues exploring a range of scenarios suggesting a global impact of USD 77 billion to USD 347 billion or 0.1% to 0.4% of global GDP, with a moderate case estimate of USD 156 billion or 0.2% of global GDP.

If two-thirds of the impact falls on the PRC, where the outbreak has been concentrated so far, most of the region will also be affected. With 27% of all tourists arrivals coming from China, Myanmar’s tourism industry is specifically exposed. The ADB estimates the impact on tourism revenues to be 0.149% of GDP or USD 106 million for the best case scenario, up to 0.45% of GDP (USD 318.8 million) for the worst case scenario.