Myanmar’s economy has been growing and will continue to grow, says a report by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
The economy expanded by 6.8 percent in the 2018-2019 fiscal year, the report said, up from 6.5 percent in the previous year. That number could increase to 7.1 percent as Myanmar experiences “improving business sentiments, strong growth in garment and other manufacturing products, an expansion of tourism-related services, and stronger fiscal spending,” the report reads.
Nevertheless, AMRO’s forecast is somewhat more optimistic than other economic authorities, the Myanmar Times pointed out. The International Monetary Fund, for example, predicted only 6.6 percent growth in 2019-2020. Even AMRO, despite its overall optimism, highlighted a number of risks to Myanmar’s economic development. “The protracted ethnic tensions in Rakhine State are expected to continue to have a dampening effect on investor sentiment, in particular, of western investors. The banking system remains weak and is still transitioning to a more stringent banking regulatory framework under Basel II,” according to a summary of the report on the AMRO web site.
Indeed, the ongoing human rights crisis on Myanmar’s western border recently led the United Nations to call for a boycott of Myanmar’s myriad military-linked businesses. Soon after, renewed fighting in the north stalled border trade with China. Worse still, recent rumors of an unpaid debt crisis drove many people to empty their bank accounts and invest in gold and other assets.
Nevertheless, this year Myanmar’s economic successes seem to have outweighed the setbacks. These include heavy investments in infrastructure, continued development of special economic zones and foreign investment in manufacturing. 2019 has also seen significant policy reforms, such as a long-overdue increase in electricity prices and a de facto tax amnesty for previously undeclared assets.
