Myanmar has finally seen its first wave of COVID-19 cases and (at the time of writing) one death from the disease. However, as countries and major cities around the world impose mandatory lockdowns, the government has yet to impose its own widespread stay-at-home order. In a televised speech, State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi did not rule out a possible “community quarantine”, and indeed Myanmar imposed its first localized lockdowns in the following days. But she said the government only mandates a broader lockdown if absolutely necessary. In the meantime, she urged people to exercise extreme caution and voluntarily avoid unnecessary travel and social contact.

Her reluctance to impose a lockdown across major cities, or even nationwide, may come as a relief, however small, to those worried about the economic damage it could cause. The State Counsellor assured that in the event of a quarantined community, the government would provide food, medicine and other supplies. However Frontier magazine doubts the government’s ability to mitigate the damage and spoke out against a lockdown in a recent editorial. “A rigidly-enforced lockdown that lasted weeks or even months would be devastating, leaving millions out of work and with no savings or support. Without a radical reorientation of government towards welfare provision, Myanmar would be adding an economic and social catastrophe to a possible public health emergency,” the column read.

Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic has already led to at least 20 garment factory closures (Daily Eleven reporting as many as 59), leaving thousands of people without work. The export industry has also suffered as Myanmar’s neighbors close their borders and internal trade routes. At the time of writing, there have been close to 1 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide and around 40,000 deaths from the disease.